According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is expected to arrive in Kerala on June 4, four days later than the date normally forecast on June 1. Kerala typically experiences the onset of the southwest monsoon on June 1 with a standard variance of roughly 7 days. Since 2005, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been producing operational forecasts for the start of the monsoon across Kerala.

For this, a locally created, cutting-edge statistical model with a model error of +- 4 days is used, according to IMD. The monsoon in Kerala last year came on May 29, two days after IMD’s forecast on May 27. Except for 2015, the operational predictions of the beginning of the monsoon over Kerala during the previous 18 years (2005-2022) have shown to be accurate, according to the IMD.

The six factors utilised in the models to predict the onset of the monsoon are as follows: ii) The south Peninsula experiences a pre-monsoon rainfall peak. Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) over the South China Sea, Lower Tropospheric Zoneal Wind over Southeast Indian Ocean, Mean Sea Level Pressure over Subtropical NW Pacific Ocean, Mean Sea Level Pressure over North East Indian Ocean, and Upper Tropospheric Zoneal Wind over North East Indian Ocean, according to an IMD press release.